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Fyllingsdalen vs Fjøra — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
CANC
14:00
Fjøra
Fjøra
9/26/20203. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 8Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fyllingsdalen62%
×Draw17%
Fjøra21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
3.08
Fjøra
1.79

Fyllingsdalen creates 72% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.42
Fjøra
1.42

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.16
Fjøra
3.74

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Fjøra+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Fjøra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
86%14%3.5
70%30%4.5
52%48%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
79%
Fyllingsdalen or Fjøra
83%
Draw or Fjøra
38%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
43%
Fjøra wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
95%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
81%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
58%
Fjøra 1+ goals
83%
Fjøra 2+ goals
53%
Fjøra 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
75%
Fjøra (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 2.42, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Fjøra away — creates 1.42, concedes 3.74 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 2.42 + Fjøra defence 3.74 → ÷2 → 3.08

Fjøra attack 1.42 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
62%
level
17%
Fjøra scores more
21%

Fyllingsdalen at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fyllingsdalen host Fjøra

September 26, 2020: Fyllingsdalen take on Fjøra in 3. Division - Girone 4. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fyllingsdalen host Fjøra at Varden Amfi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.