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Fjøra vs Fyllingsdalen — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Fjøra
Fjøra
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
K. Laegreid 23'
S. Huesa 84'
T. Salamov 45' (pen)
8/16/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 16Fosshaugane Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fjøra45%
×Draw20%
Fyllingsdalen34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fjøra
2.25
Fyllingsdalen
1.95

Fjøra creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Fjøra
2.40
Fyllingsdalen
1.90

allows per match

Fjøra
2.00
Fyllingsdalen
2.10

finishing

Fjøra+0.00on par
Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjøra ↓

Fyllingsdalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Fjøra or draw
66%
Fjøra or Fyllingsdalen
80%
Draw or Fyllingsdalen
55%

Winning margin

Fjøra wins by 2+
26%
Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Fjøra 1+ goals
89%
Fjøra 2+ goals
65%
Fjøra 3+ goals
39%
Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
86%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
58%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Fjøra (draw refunded)
57%
Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjøra at home — creates 2.40, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjøra attack 2.40 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.25

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.90 + Fjøra defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fjøra scores more
45%
level
20%
Fyllingsdalen scores more
34%

Fjøra at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fjøra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
K. Laegreid
45'
T. SalamovPenalty
84'
S. Huesa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fjøra vs Fyllingsdalen

Fyllingsdalen beat Fjøra 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 16, 2025.

Goals: K. Laegreid (23'), T. Salamov (45' pen), S. Huesa (84').

The match was played at Fosshaugane Campus in Sogndal.