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Fyllingsdalen vs Bjarg — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
FT
1 – 0
Bjarg
Bjarg
8/6/20213. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Girone 4 - 1Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Fyllingsdalen30%
×Draw19%
Bjarg51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
1.94
Bjarg
2.56

Bjarg creates 32% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.42
Bjarg
2.95

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.16
Bjarg
1.47

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Bjarg+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Bjarg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
49%
Fyllingsdalen or Bjarg
81%
Draw or Bjarg
70%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
15%
Bjarg wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
86%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
58%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
30%
Bjarg 1+ goals
92%
Bjarg 2+ goals
72%
Bjarg 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
37%
Bjarg (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 2.42, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Bjarg away — creates 2.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 2.42 + Bjarg defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Bjarg attack 2.95 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
30%
level
19%
Bjarg scores more
51%

Bjarg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 4: Fyllingsdalen 1–0 Bjarg

Fyllingsdalen beat Bjarg 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 6, 2021.

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.