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Bjarg vs Fyllingsdalen — 3. Division - Girone 3 2026

Bjarg
Bjarg
FT
4 – 1
Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
5/13/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 6Stavollen stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bjarg63%
×Draw18%
Fyllingsdalen19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bjarg
2.55
Fyllingsdalen
1.35

Bjarg creates 89% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

creates per match

Bjarg
2.31
Fyllingsdalen
1.05

allows per match

Bjarg
1.65
Fyllingsdalen
2.79

finishing

Bjarg+0.00on par
Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bjarg ↓

Fyllingsdalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Bjarg or draw
81%
Bjarg or Fyllingsdalen
82%
Draw or Fyllingsdalen
37%

Winning margin

Bjarg wins by 2+
42%
Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bjarg 1+ goals
92%
Bjarg 2+ goals
72%
Bjarg 3+ goals
46%
Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
74%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
39%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bjarg (draw refunded)
77%
Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bjarg at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.65 · 26 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bjarg attack 2.31 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.55

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.05 + Bjarg defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Bjarg scores more
63%
level
18%
Fyllingsdalen scores more
19%

Bjarg at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Bjarg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bjarg vs Fyllingsdalen

Bjarg beat Fyllingsdalen 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stavollen stadion in Fanahammaren.