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Fyllingsdalen vs Åsane II — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
FT
0 – 7
HT: 0 – 2
Åsane II
Åsane II
L. Aaker-Saldanha 90', 71'
J. F. Lie 86'
J. Aasen 69', 64', 41', 10'
8/31/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 18Varden Amfi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fyllingsdalen58%
×Draw17%
Åsane II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fyllingsdalen
3.02
Åsane II
2.00

Fyllingsdalen creates 51% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.42
Åsane II
1.85

allows per match

Fyllingsdalen
2.16
Åsane II
3.62

finishing

Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par
Åsane II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fyllingsdalen ↓

Åsane II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Fyllingsdalen or draw
75%
Fyllingsdalen or Åsane II
83%
Draw or Åsane II
42%

Winning margin

Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
39%
Åsane II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
95%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
80%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
57%
Åsane II 1+ goals
86%
Åsane II 2+ goals
59%
Åsane II 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
70%
Åsane II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fyllingsdalen at home — creates 2.42, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

Åsane II away — creates 1.85, concedes 3.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fyllingsdalen attack 2.42 + Åsane II defence 3.62 → ÷2 → 3.02

Åsane II attack 1.85 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Fyllingsdalen scores more
58%
level
17%
Åsane II scores more
25%

Fyllingsdalen at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Fyllingsdalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
J. Aasen
41'
J. Aasen
64'
J. Aasen
69'
J. Aasen
71'
L. Aaker-Saldanha
86'
J. F. Lie
90'
L. Aaker-Saldanha

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fyllingsdalen vs Åsane II

Åsane II beat Fyllingsdalen 7-0 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on August 31, 2025.

Goals: J. Aasen (10', 41', 64', 69'), L. Aaker-Saldanha (71', 90'), J. F. Lie (86').

The match was played at Varden Amfi in Bergen.