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Åsane II vs Fyllingsdalen — 3. Division - Girone 4 2026

Åsane II
Åsane II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fyllingsdalen
Fyllingsdalen
L. Aaker-Saldanha 90'
J. Aasen 90' (pen)
L. Hatlebrekke 38'
C. Johnson 78'
S. Huesa 23'
4/6/20253. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 2Åsane Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Åsane II40%
×Draw20%
Fyllingsdalen40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Åsane II
2.13
Fyllingsdalen
2.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 20 away

creates per match

Åsane II
2.15
Fyllingsdalen
1.90

allows per match

Åsane II
2.38
Fyllingsdalen
2.10

finishing

Åsane II+0.00on par
Fyllingsdalen+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Åsane II ↓

Fyllingsdalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

Åsane II or draw
60%
Åsane II or Fyllingsdalen
80%
Draw or Fyllingsdalen
60%

Winning margin

Åsane II wins by 2+
22%
Fyllingsdalen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Åsane II 1+ goals
88%
Åsane II 2+ goals
63%
Åsane II 3+ goals
35%
Fyllingsdalen 1+ goals
88%
Fyllingsdalen 2+ goals
63%
Fyllingsdalen 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Åsane II (draw refunded)
50%
Fyllingsdalen (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Åsane II at home — creates 2.15, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Fyllingsdalen away — creates 1.90, concedes 2.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Åsane II attack 2.15 + Fyllingsdalen defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.13

Fyllingsdalen attack 1.90 + Åsane II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Åsane II scores more
40%
level
20%
Fyllingsdalen scores more
40%

Åsane II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Åsane II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
S. Huesa
38'
L. Hatlebrekke
78'
C. Johnson
90'
L. Aaker-Saldanha
90'
J. AasenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Åsane II vs Fyllingsdalen

Åsane II beat Fyllingsdalen 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on April 6, 2025.

Goals: S. Huesa (23'), L. Hatlebrekke (38'), C. Johnson (78'), L. Aaker-Saldanha (90'), J. Aasen (90' pen).

The match was played at Åsane Arena in Bergen.