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Fylkir vs Njardvik — 1. Deild 2026

Fylkir
Fylkir
Preview
19:15
Njardvik
Njardvik
7/17/20261. Deild1. Deild · Round 14
44%
Fylkir
model favours
44%23%33%

Njardvik score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fylkir44%
×Draw23%
Njardvik33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fylkir
1.76
Njardvik
1.50

Fylkir creates 17% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fylkir
2.05
Njardvik
1.52

allows per match

Fylkir
1.48
Njardvik
1.48

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par
Njardvik+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Njardvik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw
67%
Fylkir or Njardvik
77%
Draw or Njardvik
56%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+
23%
Njardvik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals
83%
Fylkir 2+ goals
52%
Fylkir 3+ goals
26%
Njardvik 1+ goals
78%
Njardvik 2+ goals
44%
Njardvik 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)
57%
Njardvik (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.48 · 21 matches

Njardvik away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.05 + Njardvik defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.76

Njardvik attack 1.52 + Fylkir defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fylkir scores more
44%
level
23%
Njardvik scores more
33%

Fylkir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fylkir score first in only 29% of matches
  • 71% of Fylkir’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Njardvik’s matches
  • Njardvik win just 25% of their away games
  • 22% of Njardvik’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fylkir
WWLWW
Njardvik
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fylkir face Njardvik (1. Deild)

1. Deild returns with Fylkir hosting Njardvik. Match starts July 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.