Fylkir 3–3 Fjolnir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fylkir

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Fjolnir

A. Eythorsson 65'

E. Wohler 14'

E. Asmundsson 10'

R. Thrastarson 90+1'

K. Arnarsson 77' (pen)

B. T. Hafstein 5'

7/25/2025

1. Deild · Round 14tekk VÖLLURINN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Fylkir42%

×Draw22%

Fjolnir36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FylkirExpected goals in this matchFjolnir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.70

Fylkir

1.87

Fjolnir

1.70

Fylkir creates 10% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

2.09

creates per match

1.95

1.45

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Fylkir

2.09

Fjolnir

1.95

allows per match

Fylkir

1.45

Fjolnir

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fylkir+0.00on par

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fylkir ↓

Fjolnir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Fylkir or draw

64%

Fylkir or Fjolnir

78%

Draw or Fjolnir

58%

Winning margin

Fylkir wins by 2+

23%

Fjolnir wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fylkir 1+ goals

85%

Fylkir 2+ goals

56%

Fylkir 3+ goals

29%

Fjolnir 1+ goals

82%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

51%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Fylkir (draw refunded)

54%

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fylkir at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.45 · 22 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fylkir attack 2.09 + Fjolnir defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.87

Fjolnir attack 1.95 + Fylkir defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fylkir scores more

42%

level

22%

Fjolnir scores more

36%

Fylkir at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

B. T. Hafstein

10'

E. Asmundsson

14'

E. Wohler

50'

E. Asmundsson

57'

S. Sigmarsson

65'

A. Eythorsson

66'

E. Wohler← E. Wohler

74'

E. Vilhjalmsson← E. Vilhjalmsson

74'

S. Sigmarsson← S. Sigmarsson

77'

K. ArnarssonPenalty

78'

D. Ingvarsson

81'

E. Asmundsson← E. Asmundsson

82'

B. T. Hafstein← B. T. Hafstein

86'

T. Gunnarsson← T. Gunnarsson

87'

M. Hilmarsson← M. Hilmarsson

90+1'

R. Thrastarson

90+3'

N. Gunnarsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff