Fjolnir 1–1 Fylkir: Result & Stats | 1. Deild

Fjolnir

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fylkir

Á. Sigursteinsson 15'

O. Sveinn Segatta 80'

5/16/2025

1. Deild · Round 3Fjölnisvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Fjolnir31%

×Draw22%

Fylkir47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchFylkir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

2.00

Fjolnir

1.59

Fylkir

2.00

Fylkir creates 26% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

1.67

creates per match

2.04

1.95

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Fjolnir

1.67

Fylkir

2.04

allows per match

Fjolnir

1.95

Fylkir

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Fylkir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Fylkir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

53%

Fjolnir or Fylkir

78%

Draw or Fylkir

69%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

15%

Fylkir wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

80%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

47%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

21%

Fylkir 1+ goals

86%

Fylkir 2+ goals

59%

Fylkir 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

40%

Fylkir (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

Fylkir away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 1.67 + Fylkir defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.59

Fylkir attack 2.04 + Fjolnir defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Fjolnir scores more

31%

level

22%

Fylkir scores more

47%

Fylkir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Fylkir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

R. Haraldsson

12'

O. Jonasson

13'

R. Sveinsson

15'

Á. Sigursteinsson

45'

A. Ívarsson← R. Þrastarson

52'

M. Hilmarsson

60'

A. Ásþórsson← A. Gíslason

60'

A. Guðbjörnsson← T. Gunnarsson

67'

S. Stefansson

72'

B. Garðarsson← T. Óskarsson

73'

M. Jörgensson← Ó. Jónasson

79'

K. Arnarsson

80'

O. Sveinn Segatta

85'

A. Arnason

86'

M. Jorgensson

87'

B. Hafstein← M. Hilmarsson

87'

F. Sigurjónsson← Á. Árnason

88'

G. Sævarsson← B. Arnarsson

90+4'

E. Wohler

Fjolnir

Fylkir

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Ú. Jökulsson

45'▲A. Ívarsson←▼R. Þrastarson

73'▲M. Jörgensson←▼Ó. Jónasson

87'▲B. Hafstein←▼M. Hilmarsson

87'▲F. Sigurjónsson←▼Á. Árnason

Fjolnir substitutes

ÍvarssonJörgenssonHafsteinSigurjónssonJóhannssonOrrasonHjaltason

Manager: A. Guðnason

60'▲A. Ásþórsson←▼A. Gíslason

60'▲A. Guðbjörnsson←▼T. Gunnarsson

72'▲B. Garðarsson←▼T. Óskarsson

88'▲G. Sævarsson←▼B. Arnarsson

Fylkir substitutes

ÁsþórssonGuðbjörnssonGarðarssonSævarssonHelgasonIngimundarsonVíkingsson

1. Deild: Fjolnir 1–1 Fylkir

Fjolnir and Fylkir drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on May 16, 2025.

Goals: Á. Sigursteinsson (15'), O. Sveinn Segatta (80').

The match was played at Fjölnisvöllur in Reykjavík.

Fjolnir vs Fylkir — 1. Deild 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

1. Deild: Fjolnir 1–1 Fylkir