FV Ravensburg 2–2 Freiburger FC: Result & Stats

FV Ravensburg

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Freiburger FC

J. Boneberger 86'

P. Strauss 14'

M. Jeggle 90+3' (OG)

H. Gehring 71'

4/1/2023

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25EBRA-Stadion im Wiesental

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

FV Ravensburg50%

×Draw23%

Freiburger FC27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FV RavensburgExpected goals in this matchFreiburger FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.33

FV Ravensburg

1.87

Freiburger FC

1.33

FV Ravensburg creates 41% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 42 away

1.67

creates per match

1.12

1.53

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

FV Ravensburg

1.67

Freiburger FC

1.12

allows per match

FV Ravensburg

1.53

Freiburger FC

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FV Ravensburg+0.00on par

Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Ravensburg ↓

Freiburger FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FV Ravensburg or draw

73%

FV Ravensburg or Freiburger FC

77%

Draw or Freiburger FC

50%

Winning margin

FV Ravensburg wins by 2+

28%

Freiburger FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FV Ravensburg 1+ goals

85%

FV Ravensburg 2+ goals

56%

FV Ravensburg 3+ goals

29%

Freiburger FC 1+ goals

74%

Freiburger FC 2+ goals

38%

Freiburger FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)

65%

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Ravensburg at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Ravensburg attack 1.67 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.87

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FV Ravensburg scores more

50%

level

23%

Freiburger FC scores more

27%

FV Ravensburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

P. Strauss

71'

H. Gehring

86'

J. Boneberger

90+3'

M. JeggleOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff