Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Freiburger FC vs FV Ravensburg — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
D. Tritschler 45'
M. P. Allgaier 40'
D. Blaser 83', 47'
9/14/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 8Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Freiburger FC35%
×Draw22%
FV Ravensburg43%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
1.67
FV Ravensburg
1.85

FV Ravensburg creates 11% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 93 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
FV Ravensburg
1.49

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
FV Ravensburg
1.81

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
FV Ravensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

FV Ravensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
57%
Freiburger FC or FV Ravensburg
78%
Draw or FV Ravensburg
65%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
17%
FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
81%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
50%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
23%
FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
84%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
55%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
45%
FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

FV Ravensburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

FV Ravensburg attack 1.49 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
35%
level
22%
FV Ravensburg scores more
43%

FV Ravensburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'
M. P. Allgaier
45'
D. Tritschler
47'
D. Blaser
83'
D. Blaser

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Freiburger FC vs FV Ravensburg

Freiburger FC and FV Ravensburg drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on September 14, 2022.

Goals: M. P. Allgaier (40'), D. Tritschler (45'), D. Blaser (47', 83').

The match was played at Dietenbach-Sportpark in Freiburg im Breisgau.