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FV Engers 07 vs Ahrweiler BC — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
FT
1 – 0
Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
9/30/2022Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 10Stadion am Wasserturm

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

FV Engers 0756%
×Draw23%
Ahrweiler BC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FV Engers 07
1.86
Ahrweiler BC
1.04

FV Engers 07 creates 79% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 10 away

creates per match

FV Engers 07
1.92
Ahrweiler BC
0.60

allows per match

FV Engers 07
1.49
Ahrweiler BC
1.80

finishing

FV Engers 07+0.00on par
Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FV Engers 07 ↓

Ahrweiler BC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FV Engers 07 or draw
79%
FV Engers 07 or Ahrweiler BC
77%
Draw or Ahrweiler BC
44%

Winning margin

FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
32%
Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FV Engers 07 1+ goals
84%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
55%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
28%
Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
65%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
28%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
73%
Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FV Engers 07 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.49 · 76 matches

Ahrweiler BC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FV Engers 07 attack 1.92 + Ahrweiler BC defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.86

Ahrweiler BC attack 0.60 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FV Engers 07 scores more
56%
level
23%
Ahrweiler BC scores more
21%

FV Engers 07 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FV Engers 07 vs Ahrweiler BC

FV Engers 07 beat Ahrweiler BC 1-0 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on September 30, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion am Wasserturm in Neuwied.