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Ahrweiler BC vs FV Engers 07 — Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar 2020

Ahrweiler BC
Ahrweiler BC
FT
1 – 3
FV Engers 07
FV Engers 07
2/25/2023Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / SaarOberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar · Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar - 21Heimersheim Kunstrasen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ahrweiler BC30%
×Draw21%
FV Engers 0750%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ahrweiler BC
1.66
FV Engers 07
2.18

FV Engers 07 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 78 away

creates per match

Ahrweiler BC
1.60
FV Engers 07
1.96

allows per match

Ahrweiler BC
2.40
FV Engers 07
1.71

finishing

Ahrweiler BC+0.00on par
FV Engers 07+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ahrweiler BC ↓

FV Engers 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ahrweiler BC or draw
50%
Ahrweiler BC or FV Engers 07
79%
Draw or FV Engers 07
70%

Winning margin

Ahrweiler BC wins by 2+
14%
FV Engers 07 wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ahrweiler BC 1+ goals
81%
Ahrweiler BC 2+ goals
49%
Ahrweiler BC 3+ goals
23%
FV Engers 07 1+ goals
89%
FV Engers 07 2+ goals
64%
FV Engers 07 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Ahrweiler BC (draw refunded)
37%
FV Engers 07 (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ahrweiler BC at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

FV Engers 07 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.71 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ahrweiler BC attack 1.60 + FV Engers 07 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

FV Engers 07 attack 1.96 + Ahrweiler BC defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ahrweiler BC scores more
30%
level
21%
FV Engers 07 scores more
50%

FV Engers 07 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FV Engers 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ahrweiler BC vs FV Engers 07

FV Engers 07 beat Ahrweiler BC 3-1 in Oberliga - Rheinland-Pfalz / Saar on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Heimersheim Kunstrasen in Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler.