Fužinar 1–2 Dravinja: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Fužinar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Dravinja

3/24/2024

2. SNL · Round 22Mestni stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Fužinar43%

×Draw24%

Dravinja33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FužinarExpected goals in this matchDravinja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.39

Fužinar

1.64

Dravinja

1.39

Fužinar creates 18% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

1.61

creates per match

1.20

1.58

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Fužinar

1.61

Dravinja

1.20

allows per match

Fužinar

1.58

Dravinja

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fužinar+0.00on par

Dravinja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fužinar ↓

Dravinja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fužinar or draw

67%

Fužinar or Dravinja

76%

Draw or Dravinja

57%

Winning margin

Fužinar wins by 2+

22%

Dravinja wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fužinar 1+ goals

81%

Fužinar 2+ goals

49%

Fužinar 3+ goals

23%

Dravinja 1+ goals

75%

Dravinja 2+ goals

40%

Dravinja 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Fužinar (draw refunded)

57%

Dravinja (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fužinar at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.58 · 67 matches

Dravinja away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fužinar attack 1.61 + Dravinja defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.64

Dravinja attack 1.20 + Fužinar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fužinar scores more

43%

level

24%

Dravinja scores more

33%

Fužinar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fužinar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff