Dravinja 0–0 Fužinar: Result & Stats | 2. SNL

Dravinja

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Fužinar

9/9/2023

2. SNL · Round 7Štadion Dobrava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dravinja41%

×Draw26%

Fužinar32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DravinjaExpected goals in this matchFužinar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.21

Dravinja

1.40

Fužinar

1.21

Dravinja creates 16% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 65 away

0.98

creates per match

1.37

1.04

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Dravinja

0.98

Fužinar

1.37

allows per match

Dravinja

1.04

Fužinar

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dravinja+0.00on par

Fužinar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dravinja ↓

Fužinar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Dravinja or draw

68%

Dravinja or Fužinar

74%

Draw or Fužinar

59%

Winning margin

Dravinja wins by 2+

19%

Fužinar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Dravinja 1+ goals

75%

Dravinja 2+ goals

41%

Dravinja 3+ goals

17%

Fužinar 1+ goals

70%

Fužinar 2+ goals

34%

Fužinar 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Dravinja (draw refunded)

56%

Fužinar (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dravinja at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Fužinar away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.82 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dravinja attack 0.98 + Fužinar defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fužinar attack 1.37 + Dravinja defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Dravinja scores more

41%

level

26%

Fužinar scores more

32%

Dravinja at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dravinja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff