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Füzesgyarmati vs Debrecen II — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Debrecen II
Debrecen II
4/9/2023NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 30Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Füzesgyarmati49%
×Draw23%
Debrecen II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.79
Debrecen II
1.31

Füzesgyarmati creates 37% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 111 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Debrecen II
1.62

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Debrecen II
1.77

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Debrecen II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Debrecen II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
72%
Füzesgyarmati or Debrecen II
77%
Draw or Debrecen II
51%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
27%
Debrecen II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
83%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
53%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
26%
Debrecen II 1+ goals
73%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
38%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
63%
Debrecen II (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Debrecen II away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.77 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Debrecen II defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Debrecen II attack 1.62 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
49%
level
23%
Debrecen II scores more
28%

Füzesgyarmati at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Füzesgyarmati 0–1 Debrecen II

Debrecen II beat Füzesgyarmati 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on April 9, 2023.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.