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Debrecen II vs Füzesgyarmati — NB III - Northeast 2019

Debrecen II
Debrecen II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
10/2/2022NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 11Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Debrecen II50%
×Draw23%
Füzesgyarmati28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Debrecen II
1.83
Füzesgyarmati
1.31

Debrecen II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 67 away

creates per match

Debrecen II
2.03
Füzesgyarmati
1.24

allows per match

Debrecen II
1.38
Füzesgyarmati
1.63

finishing

Debrecen II+0.00on par
Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Debrecen II ↓

Füzesgyarmati →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Debrecen II or draw
72%
Debrecen II or Füzesgyarmati
77%
Draw or Füzesgyarmati
50%

Winning margin

Debrecen II wins by 2+
27%
Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Debrecen II 1+ goals
84%
Debrecen II 2+ goals
54%
Debrecen II 3+ goals
28%
Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
73%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
38%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Debrecen II (draw refunded)
64%
Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Debrecen II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.38 · 111 matches

Füzesgyarmati away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.63 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Debrecen II attack 2.03 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.83

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.24 + Debrecen II defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Debrecen II scores more
50%
level
23%
Füzesgyarmati scores more
28%

Debrecen II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Debrecen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Debrecen II 1–1 Füzesgyarmati

Debrecen II and Füzesgyarmati drew 1-1 in NB III - Northeast on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Debreceni Egyetemi AC Stadion in Debrecen.