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Füzesgyarmati vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Southeast 2023

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
1 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
4/28/2024NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 26Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Füzesgyarmati44%
×Draw21%
Cegledi VSE35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
2.06
Cegledi VSE
1.83

Füzesgyarmati creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
0.93
Cegledi VSE
1.13

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
2.53
Cegledi VSE
3.20

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
65%
Füzesgyarmati or Cegledi VSE
79%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
56%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
25%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
87%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
61%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
34%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
84%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
54%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
56%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 1.13, concedes 3.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 0.93 + Cegledi VSE defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.06

Cegledi VSE attack 1.13 + Füzesgyarmati defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
44%
level
21%
Cegledi VSE scores more
35%

Füzesgyarmati at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Southeast: Füzesgyarmati 1–5 Cegledi VSE

Cegledi VSE beat Füzesgyarmati 5-1 in NB III - Southeast on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.