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Füzesgyarmati vs Cegledi VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
0 – 1
Cegledi VSE
Cegledi VSE
8/9/2020NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 2Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Füzesgyarmati52%
×Draw25%
Cegledi VSE23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.60
Cegledi VSE
0.98

Füzesgyarmati creates 63% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 27 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.82
Cegledi VSE
0.96

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
1.00
Cegledi VSE
1.37

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
Cegledi VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

Cegledi VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
77%
Füzesgyarmati or Cegledi VSE
75%
Draw or Cegledi VSE
48%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
27%
Cegledi VSE wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
80%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
47%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
22%
Cegledi VSE 1+ goals
62%
Cegledi VSE 2+ goals
26%
Cegledi VSE 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
69%
Cegledi VSE (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

Cegledi VSE away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.37 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + Cegledi VSE defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cegledi VSE attack 0.96 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
52%
level
25%
Cegledi VSE scores more
23%

Füzesgyarmati at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs Cegledi VSE

Cegledi VSE beat Füzesgyarmati 1-0 in NB III - Northeast on August 9, 2020.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.