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Füzesgyarmati vs BKV Előre — NB III - Southeast 2023

Füzesgyarmati
Füzesgyarmati
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
BKV Előre
BKV Előre
8/19/2023NB III - SoutheastNB III - Southeast · Southeast - 4Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Füzesgyarmati27%
×Draw22%
BKV Előre52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Füzesgyarmati
1.38
BKV Előre
2.00

BKV Előre creates 45% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati
0.93
BKV Előre
1.47

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati
2.53
BKV Előre
1.82

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par
BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

BKV Előre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw
48%
Füzesgyarmati or BKV Előre
78%
Draw or BKV Előre
73%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+
11%
BKV Előre wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals
75%
Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals
40%
Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals
16%
BKV Előre 1+ goals
86%
BKV Előre 2+ goals
59%
BKV Előre 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)
34%
BKV Előre (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 0.93 + BKV Előre defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.38

BKV Előre attack 1.47 + Füzesgyarmati defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more
27%
level
22%
BKV Előre scores more
52%

BKV Előre at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "BKV Előre will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Füzesgyarmati vs BKV Előre

BKV Előre beat Füzesgyarmati 3-0 in NB III - Southeast on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Lázár Gyula Sporttelep in Füzesgyarmat.