Füzesgyarmati 1–1 BKV Előre: Result & Stats

Füzesgyarmati

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

BKV Előre

3/27/2022

NB III - Northeast · Keleti - 27Lázár Gyula Sporttelep

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Füzesgyarmati50%

×Draw24%

BKV Előre26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FüzesgyarmatiExpected goals in this matchBKV Előre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.16

Füzesgyarmati

1.70

BKV Előre

1.16

Füzesgyarmati creates 47% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 38 away

1.82

creates per match

1.32

1.00

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.82

BKV Előre

1.32

allows per match

Füzesgyarmati

1.00

BKV Előre

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Füzesgyarmati+0.00on par

BKV Előre+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Füzesgyarmati ↓

BKV Előre →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Füzesgyarmati or draw

74%

Füzesgyarmati or BKV Előre

76%

Draw or BKV Előre

50%

Winning margin

Füzesgyarmati wins by 2+

27%

BKV Előre wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Füzesgyarmati 1+ goals

82%

Füzesgyarmati 2+ goals

51%

Füzesgyarmati 3+ goals

24%

BKV Előre 1+ goals

69%

BKV Előre 2+ goals

32%

BKV Előre 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Füzesgyarmati (draw refunded)

66%

BKV Előre (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Füzesgyarmati at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 65 matches

BKV Előre away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.58 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Füzesgyarmati attack 1.82 + BKV Előre defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.70

BKV Előre attack 1.32 + Füzesgyarmati defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Füzesgyarmati scores more

50%

level

24%

BKV Előre scores more

26%

Füzesgyarmati at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Füzesgyarmati will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff