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Future Stars vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Division One League 2025

Future Stars
Future Stars
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
5/10/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 29

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Future Stars45%
×Draw29%
Ebusua Dwarfs26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Future Stars
1.27
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.90

Future Stars creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Future Stars
1.67
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

allows per match

Future Stars
0.93
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

finishing

Future Stars+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Future Stars ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Future Stars or draw
74%
Future Stars or Ebusua Dwarfs
71%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
55%

Winning margin

Future Stars wins by 2+
20%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Future Stars 1+ goals
72%
Future Stars 2+ goals
36%
Future Stars 3+ goals
14%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
59%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
23%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Future Stars (draw refunded)
63%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Future Stars at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Future Stars attack 1.67 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.87 + Future Stars defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Future Stars scores more
45%
level
29%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
26%

Future Stars at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Future Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Future Stars 0–1 Ebusua Dwarfs

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Future Stars 1-0 in Division One League on May 10, 2026.