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Ebusua Dwarfs vs Future Stars — Division One League 2025

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Future Stars
Future Stars
1/4/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs60%
×Draw25%
Future Stars15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.57
Future Stars
0.64

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 145% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.67
Future Stars
0.60

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
0.67
Future Stars
1.47

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Future Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Future Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
85%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Future Stars
75%
Draw or Future Stars
40%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
32%
Future Stars wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
79%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
46%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
21%
Future Stars 1+ goals
47%
Future Stars 2+ goals
14%
Future Stars 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
80%
Future Stars (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Future Stars away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + Future Stars defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.57

Future Stars attack 0.60 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
60%
level
25%
Future Stars scores more
15%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebusua Dwarfs vs Future Stars

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Future Stars 4-0 in Division One League on January 4, 2026.