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Future FC vs Masr — Premier League 2018

Future FC
Future FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Masr
Masr
11/24/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3WE Al-Ahly Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Future FC40%
×Draw30%
Masr30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Future FC
1.11
Masr
0.92

Future FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 62 away

creates per match

Future FC
0.99
Masr
1.03

allows per match

Future FC
0.81
Masr
1.24

finishing

Future FC+0.00on par
Masr+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Future FC ↓

Masr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Future FC or draw
70%
Future FC or Masr
70%
Draw or Masr
60%

Winning margin

Future FC wins by 2+
16%
Masr wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Future FC 1+ goals
67%
Future FC 2+ goals
30%
Future FC 3+ goals
10%
Masr 1+ goals
60%
Masr 2+ goals
23%
Masr 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Future FC (draw refunded)
57%
Masr (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Future FC at home — creates 0.99, concedes 0.81 · 79 matches

Masr away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Future FC attack 0.99 + Masr defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Masr attack 1.03 + Future FC defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Future FC scores more
40%
level
30%
Masr scores more
30%

Future FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Future FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Future FC vs Masr

Future FC and Masr drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at WE Al-Ahly Stadium in Cairo.