Futgol U20 0–0 América Mineiro U20: Result & Stats

Futgol U20

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

América Mineiro U20

9/7/2025

Mineiro U20 · Championship Round - 3Complexo Esportivo Bonfim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Futgol U2036%

×Draw26%

América Mineiro U2038%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futgol U20Expected goals in this matchAmérica Mineiro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.34

Futgol U20

1.29

América Mineiro U20

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 25 away

1.38

creates per match

1.56

1.13

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Futgol U20

1.38

América Mineiro U20

1.56

allows per match

Futgol U20

1.13

América Mineiro U20

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futgol U20+0.00on par

América Mineiro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futgol U20 ↓

América Mineiro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Futgol U20 or draw

62%

Futgol U20 or América Mineiro U20

74%

Draw or América Mineiro U20

64%

Winning margin

Futgol U20 wins by 2+

16%

América Mineiro U20 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Futgol U20 1+ goals

72%

Futgol U20 2+ goals

37%

Futgol U20 3+ goals

14%

América Mineiro U20 1+ goals

74%

América Mineiro U20 2+ goals

39%

América Mineiro U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Futgol U20 (draw refunded)

48%

América Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futgol U20 at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

América Mineiro U20 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futgol U20 attack 1.38 + América Mineiro U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

América Mineiro U20 attack 1.56 + Futgol U20 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Futgol U20 scores more

36%

level

26%

América Mineiro U20 scores more

38%

América Mineiro U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "América Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff