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América Mineiro U20 vs Futgol U20 — Mineiro U20 2026

América Mineiro U20
América Mineiro U20
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Futgol U20
Futgol U20
A. Luan 78', 72'
Kaua Diniz 49'
Paulinho 45+1'
Karlos 43'
6/22/2024Mineiro U20Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio das Alterosas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

América Mineiro U2059%
×Draw20%
Futgol U2021%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

América Mineiro U20
2.23
Futgol U20
1.24

América Mineiro U20 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

América Mineiro U20
2.46
Futgol U20
1.73

allows per match

América Mineiro U20
0.75
Futgol U20
2.00

finishing

América Mineiro U20+0.00on par
Futgol U20+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

América Mineiro U20 ↓

Futgol U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

América Mineiro U20 or draw
79%
América Mineiro U20 or Futgol U20
80%
Draw or Futgol U20
41%

Winning margin

América Mineiro U20 wins by 2+
37%
Futgol U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

América Mineiro U20 1+ goals
89%
América Mineiro U20 2+ goals
65%
América Mineiro U20 3+ goals
38%
Futgol U20 1+ goals
71%
Futgol U20 2+ goals
35%
Futgol U20 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

América Mineiro U20 (draw refunded)
74%
Futgol U20 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

América Mineiro U20 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

Futgol U20 away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

América Mineiro U20 attack 2.46 + Futgol U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Futgol U20 attack 1.73 + América Mineiro U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

América Mineiro U20 scores more
59%
level
20%
Futgol U20 scores more
21%

América Mineiro U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "América Mineiro U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Karlos
45+1'
Paulinho
49'
Kaua Diniz
63'
72'
A. Luan
78'
A. Luan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: América Mineiro U20 vs Futgol U20

América Mineiro U20 beat Futgol U20 5-0 in Mineiro U20 on June 22, 2024.

Goals: Karlos (43'), Paulinho (45+1'), Kaua Diniz (49'), A. Luan (72', 78').

The match was played at Estádio das Alterosas in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.