Futbol Consultants Moravia 1–2 Guadalupe FC

Futbol Consultants Moravia

AET

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Guadalupe FC

6/1/2025

Liga de Ascenso · Championship - FinalsEstadio Ernesto Rohrmoser Lahmann

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia36%

×Draw25%

Guadalupe FC39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futbol Consultants MoraviaExpected goals in this matchGuadalupe FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.46

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.40

Guadalupe FC

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 37 away

1.53

creates per match

1.65

1.27

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.53

Guadalupe FC

1.65

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.27

Guadalupe FC

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Guadalupe FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Guadalupe FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw

61%

Futbol Consultants Moravia or Guadalupe FC

75%

Draw or Guadalupe FC

64%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

17%

Guadalupe FC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

75%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

41%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

17%

Guadalupe FC 1+ goals

77%

Guadalupe FC 2+ goals

43%

Guadalupe FC 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

48%

Guadalupe FC (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.27 · 126 matches

Guadalupe FC away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.53 + Guadalupe FC defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Guadalupe FC attack 1.65 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

36%

level

25%

Guadalupe FC scores more

39%

Guadalupe FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guadalupe FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff