Futbol Consultants Moravia 0–1 Deportivo Cartagena

Futbol Consultants Moravia

FT

0 – 1

Deportivo Cartagena

11/4/2018

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 18Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado (San Jose)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia45%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Cartagena32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futbol Consultants MoraviaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cartagena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.49

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.80

Deportivo Cartagena

1.49

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 32 away

1.54

creates per match

1.72

1.26

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.54

Deportivo Cartagena

1.72

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.26

Deportivo Cartagena

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Deportivo Cartagena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw

68%

Futbol Consultants Moravia or Deportivo Cartagena

77%

Draw or Deportivo Cartagena

55%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

83%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

54%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

27%

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals

77%

Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals

44%

Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

58%

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

Deportivo Cartagena away — creates 1.72, concedes 2.06 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.54 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.80

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.72 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

45%

level

23%

Deportivo Cartagena scores more

32%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff