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Deportivo Cartagena vs Futbol Consultants Moravia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Deportivo Cartagena
Deportivo Cartagena
FT
5 – 0
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
9/9/2018Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 9Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán (San Ramón de Alajuela)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Deportivo Cartagena51%
×Draw24%
Futbol Consultants Moravia25%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Cartagena
1.73
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.15

Deportivo Cartagena creates 50% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 124 away

creates per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.81
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.18

allows per match

Deportivo Cartagena
1.13
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.65

finishing

Deportivo Cartagena+0.00on par
Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Cartagena ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Deportivo Cartagena or draw
75%
Deportivo Cartagena or Futbol Consultants Moravia
76%
Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia
49%

Winning margin

Deportivo Cartagena wins by 2+
28%
Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Deportivo Cartagena 1+ goals
82%
Deportivo Cartagena 2+ goals
52%
Deportivo Cartagena 3+ goals
25%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
68%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
32%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Cartagena (draw refunded)
67%
Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Cartagena at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.13 · 31 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Cartagena attack 1.81 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.73

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Deportivo Cartagena defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Deportivo Cartagena scores more
51%
level
24%
Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
25%

Deportivo Cartagena at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Deportivo Cartagena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Deportivo Cartagena 5–0 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Deportivo Cartagena beat Futbol Consultants Moravia 5-0 in Liga de Ascenso on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Guillermo Vargas Roldán (San Ramón de Alajuela).