Futbol Consultants Moravia 2–2 Curridabat FC

Futbol Consultants Moravia

FT

2 – 2

Curridabat FC

9/25/2019

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 11Estadio ST Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia47%

×Draw24%

Curridabat FC29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Futbol Consultants MoraviaExpected goals in this matchCurridabat FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.32

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.74

Curridabat FC

1.32

Futbol Consultants Moravia creates 32% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 32 away

1.54

creates per match

1.38

1.26

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.54

Curridabat FC

1.38

allows per match

Futbol Consultants Moravia

1.26

Curridabat FC

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Curridabat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Futbol Consultants Moravia ↓

Curridabat FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Futbol Consultants Moravia or draw

71%

Futbol Consultants Moravia or Curridabat FC

76%

Draw or Curridabat FC

53%

Winning margin

Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+

25%

Curridabat FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals

82%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals

52%

Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals

25%

Curridabat FC 1+ goals

73%

Curridabat FC 2+ goals

38%

Curridabat FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)

62%

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Futbol Consultants Moravia at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 125 matches

Curridabat FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.54 + Curridabat FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.74

Curridabat FC attack 1.38 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more

47%

level

24%

Curridabat FC scores more

29%

Futbol Consultants Moravia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Futbol Consultants Moravia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff