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Curridabat FC vs Futbol Consultants Moravia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Curridabat FC
Curridabat FC
FT
1 – 1
Futbol Consultants Moravia
Futbol Consultants Moravia
8/4/2019Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Curridabat FC41%
×Draw26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia33%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Curridabat FC
1.38
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.21

Curridabat FC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 124 away

creates per match

Curridabat FC
1.10
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.18

allows per match

Curridabat FC
1.23
Futbol Consultants Moravia
1.65

finishing

Curridabat FC+0.00on par
Futbol Consultants Moravia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curridabat FC ↓

Futbol Consultants Moravia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Curridabat FC or draw
67%
Curridabat FC or Futbol Consultants Moravia
74%
Draw or Futbol Consultants Moravia
59%

Winning margin

Curridabat FC wins by 2+
19%
Futbol Consultants Moravia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Curridabat FC 1+ goals
75%
Curridabat FC 2+ goals
40%
Curridabat FC 3+ goals
16%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 1+ goals
70%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 2+ goals
34%
Futbol Consultants Moravia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Curridabat FC (draw refunded)
55%
Futbol Consultants Moravia (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curridabat FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Futbol Consultants Moravia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.65 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curridabat FC attack 1.10 + Futbol Consultants Moravia defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Futbol Consultants Moravia attack 1.18 + Curridabat FC defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Curridabat FC scores more
41%
level
26%
Futbol Consultants Moravia scores more
33%

Curridabat FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Curridabat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Curridabat FC 1 – 1 Futbol Consultants Moravia

Curridabat FC and Futbol Consultants Moravia drew 1-1 in Liga de Ascenso on August 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.