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Fushë Kosova vs Feronikeli — Superliga 2019

Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Feronikeli
Feronikeli
12/16/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Stadiumi Ekrem Grajqevci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Fushë Kosova41%
×Draw27%
Feronikeli32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fushë Kosova
1.33
Feronikeli
1.14

Fushë Kosova creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 88 away

creates per match

Fushë Kosova
0.78
Feronikeli
0.89

allows per match

Fushë Kosova
1.39
Feronikeli
1.89

finishing

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par
Feronikeli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fushë Kosova ↓

Feronikeli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fushë Kosova or draw
68%
Fushë Kosova or Feronikeli
73%
Draw or Feronikeli
59%

Winning margin

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
19%
Feronikeli wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
74%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
38%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
15%
Feronikeli 1+ goals
68%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
32%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
56%
Feronikeli (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fushë Kosova at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Feronikeli away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fushë Kosova attack 0.78 + Feronikeli defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.33

Feronikeli attack 0.89 + Fushë Kosova defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fushë Kosova scores more
41%
level
27%
Feronikeli scores more
32%

Fushë Kosova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fushë Kosova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Superliga: Fushë Kosova 0–1 Feronikeli

Feronikeli beat Fushë Kosova 1-0 in Superliga on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Ekrem Grajqevci in Kosovo Polje.