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Feronikeli vs Fushë Kosova — Superliga 2019

Feronikeli
Feronikeli
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fushë Kosova
Fushë Kosova
10/7/2023SuperligaSuperliga · Round 9Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Feronikeli57%
×Draw25%
Fushë Kosova19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feronikeli
1.63
Fushë Kosova
0.82

Feronikeli creates 99% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

creates per match

Feronikeli
1.08
Fushë Kosova
0.33

allows per match

Feronikeli
1.30
Fushë Kosova
2.17

finishing

Feronikeli+0.00on par
Fushë Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feronikeli ↓

Fushë Kosova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Feronikeli or draw
81%
Feronikeli or Fushë Kosova
75%
Draw or Fushë Kosova
43%

Winning margin

Feronikeli wins by 2+
31%
Fushë Kosova wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Feronikeli 1+ goals
80%
Feronikeli 2+ goals
48%
Feronikeli 3+ goals
22%
Fushë Kosova 1+ goals
56%
Fushë Kosova 2+ goals
20%
Fushë Kosova 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Feronikeli (draw refunded)
75%
Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feronikeli at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.30 · 90 matches

Fushë Kosova away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feronikeli attack 1.08 + Fushë Kosova defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.63

Fushë Kosova attack 0.33 + Feronikeli defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Feronikeli scores more
57%
level
25%
Fushë Kosova scores more
19%

Feronikeli at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Feronikeli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feronikeli vs Fushë Kosova

Feronikeli beat Fushë Kosova 3-0 in Superliga on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadiumi Rexhep Rexhepi in Glogovac.