Fushë Kosova 0–5 Drita: Result & Stats | Cup

Fushë Kosova

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Drita

2/6/2022

Cup · Round of 16Stadiumi Ramiz Sadiku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fushë Kosova7%

×Draw11%

Drita82%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fushë KosovaExpected goals in this matchDrita

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

3.38

Fushë Kosova

0.94

Drita

3.38

Drita creates 260% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.25

creates per match

3.25

3.50

allows per match

0.63

creates per match

Fushë Kosova

1.25

Drita

3.25

allows per match

Fushë Kosova

3.50

Drita

0.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par

Drita+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fushë Kosova ↓

Drita →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–15%

0–28%

0–39%

0–48%

1

1–01%

1–14%

1–28%

1–39%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–34%

2–43%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Fushë Kosova or draw

18%

Fushë Kosova or Drita

89%

Draw or Drita

93%

Winning margin

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+

2%

Drita wins by 2+

64%

Team goals

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals

61%

Fushë Kosova 2+ goals

24%

Fushë Kosova 3+ goals

7%

Drita 1+ goals

96%

Drita 2+ goals

84%

Drita 3+ goals

64%

Draw no bet

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)

8%

Drita (draw refunded)

92%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fushë Kosova at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

Drita away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.63 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fushë Kosova attack 1.25 + Drita defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.94

Drita attack 3.25 + Fushë Kosova defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

Fushë Kosova scores more

7%

level

11%

Drita scores more

82%

Drita at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff