Drita 3–1 Fushë Kosova: Result & Stats | Superliga

Drita

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fushë Kosova

5/5/2024

Superliga · Round 32Stadiumi i qytetit Gjilan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Drita74%

×Draw19%

Fushë Kosova8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DritaExpected goals in this matchFushë Kosova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.48

Drita

2.01

Fushë Kosova

0.48

Drita creates 319% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 18 away

1.85

creates per match

0.33

0.63

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Drita

1.85

Fushë Kosova

0.33

allows per match

Drita

0.63

Fushë Kosova

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Drita+0.00on par

Fushë Kosova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Drita ↓

Fushë Kosova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Drita or draw

92%

Drita or Fushë Kosova

81%

Draw or Fushë Kosova

26%

Winning margin

Drita wins by 2+

47%

Fushë Kosova wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Drita 1+ goals

87%

Drita 2+ goals

59%

Drita 3+ goals

32%

Fushë Kosova 1+ goals

38%

Fushë Kosova 2+ goals

8%

Fushë Kosova 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Drita (draw refunded)

90%

Fushë Kosova (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Drita at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.63 · 125 matches

Fushë Kosova away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Drita attack 1.85 + Fushë Kosova defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.01

Fushë Kosova attack 0.33 + Drita defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Drita scores more

74%

level

19%

Fushë Kosova scores more

8%

Drita at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Drita will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff