FUS Rabat 1–1 Renaissance Berkane: Result & Stats

FUS Rabat

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Renaissance Berkane

11/11/2023

Botola Pro · Round 9Stade Prince Moulay El Hassan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

FUS Rabat38%

×Draw31%

Renaissance Berkane32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FUS RabatExpected goals in this matchRenaissance Berkane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

0.95

FUS Rabat

1.07

Renaissance Berkane

0.95

FUS Rabat creates 13% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 120 away

1.26

creates per match

1.02

0.88

allows per match

0.88

creates per match

FUS Rabat

1.26

Renaissance Berkane

1.02

allows per match

FUS Rabat

0.88

Renaissance Berkane

0.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Renaissance Berkane+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Renaissance Berkane →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw

68%

FUS Rabat or Renaissance Berkane

69%

Draw or Renaissance Berkane

62%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

15%

Renaissance Berkane wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

66%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

29%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

9%

Renaissance Berkane 1+ goals

61%

Renaissance Berkane 2+ goals

25%

Renaissance Berkane 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

55%

Renaissance Berkane (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.88 · 121 matches

Renaissance Berkane away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.88 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Renaissance Berkane defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.07

Renaissance Berkane attack 1.02 + FUS Rabat defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

FUS Rabat scores more

38%

level

31%

Renaissance Berkane scores more

32%

FUS Rabat at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff