FUS Rabat 3–3 Difaa EL Jadida: Result & Stats

FUS Rabat

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Difaa EL Jadida

S. Tazi 76'

A. Souane 50'

A. Serrhat 45+1'

O. Arjoune 89'

Y. Arbidi 79'

K. Baba 32'

12/6/2024

Botola Pro · Round 13Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 104+ matches

FUS Rabat48%

×Draw27%

Difaa EL Jadida25%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FUS RabatExpected goals in this matchDifaa EL Jadida

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.94

FUS Rabat

1.40

Difaa EL Jadida

0.94

FUS Rabat creates 49% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 104 away

1.26

creates per match

1.01

0.87

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

FUS Rabat

1.26

Difaa EL Jadida

1.01

allows per match

FUS Rabat

0.87

Difaa EL Jadida

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FUS Rabat ↓

Difaa EL Jadida →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FUS Rabat or draw

75%

FUS Rabat or Difaa EL Jadida

73%

Draw or Difaa EL Jadida

52%

Winning margin

FUS Rabat wins by 2+

23%

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FUS Rabat 1+ goals

75%

FUS Rabat 2+ goals

41%

FUS Rabat 3+ goals

17%

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals

61%

Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals

24%

Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FUS Rabat (draw refunded)

65%

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FUS Rabat at home — creates 1.26, concedes 0.87 · 119 matches

Difaa EL Jadida away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.53 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FUS Rabat attack 1.26 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.01 + FUS Rabat defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FUS Rabat scores more

48%

level

27%

Difaa EL Jadida scores more

25%

FUS Rabat at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

40'

45+1'

50'

64'

64'

A. Mouloua← H. Hannouri

66'

Amine Souane

69'

M. Kpatai← M. Sahd

69'

A. Kanou← M. Chichane

74'

Y. Lamine← S. Benyachou

74'

S. Tazi← R. Laalaloui

76'

S. Tazi

79'

Y. Arbidi

82'

R. Majji← K. Baba

87'

Rachid Ghanimi

89'

O. Arjoune

90+6'

O. Benchaoui← Y. Arbidi

Statistics

FUSDifaa

Discipline

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0