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Difaa EL Jadida vs FUS Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Difaa EL Jadida
Difaa EL Jadida
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
FUS Rabat
FUS Rabat
Y. Fatine 90+1' (OG)
H. Hannouri 84'
A. Serrhat 57'
M. Hadhoudi 45+1' (OG)
A. Souane 7'
5/4/2025Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 28Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Difaa EL Jadida34%
×Draw31%
FUS Rabat35%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difaa EL Jadida
1.01
FUS Rabat
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 105 home / 120 away

creates per match

Difaa EL Jadida
1.00
FUS Rabat
1.09

allows per match

Difaa EL Jadida
0.96
FUS Rabat
1.02

finishing

Difaa EL Jadida+0.00on par
FUS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difaa EL Jadida ↓

FUS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Difaa EL Jadida or draw
65%
Difaa EL Jadida or FUS Rabat
69%
Draw or FUS Rabat
66%

Winning margin

Difaa EL Jadida wins by 2+
13%
FUS Rabat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Difaa EL Jadida 1+ goals
64%
Difaa EL Jadida 2+ goals
27%
Difaa EL Jadida 3+ goals
8%
FUS Rabat 1+ goals
64%
FUS Rabat 2+ goals
27%
FUS Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Difaa EL Jadida (draw refunded)
50%
FUS Rabat (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difaa EL Jadida at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.96 · 105 matches

FUS Rabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difaa EL Jadida attack 1.00 + FUS Rabat defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.01

FUS Rabat attack 1.09 + Difaa EL Jadida defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Difaa EL Jadida scores more
34%
level
31%
FUS Rabat scores more
35%

FUS Rabat at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FUS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
A. Souane
45+1'
M. HadhoudiOwn goal
54'
M. Chichane← Y. Aguerdoum
57'
A. Serrhat
59'
Marouane Lemzaouri
71'
M. Kpatai← H. Faris
71'
O. El Hanoudi← Y. Arbidi
72'
R. Majji← M. Sahd
77'
S. Benyachou← A. Mouloua
77'
H. Hannouri← C. Faidi
84'
H. Hannouri
90'
O. Raoui← A. Serrhat
90'
M. Amri← O. Soukhane
90+4'
A. Echchennikh← H. El Mhassani
90+1'
Y. FatineOwn goal

Statistics

DifaaFUS
Discipline
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Botola Pro: Difaa EL Jadida 0–5 FUS Rabat

FUS Rabat beat Difaa EL Jadida 5-0 in Botola Pro on May 4, 2025.

Goals: A. Souane (7'), M. Hadhoudi (45+1' o.g.), A. Serrhat (57'), H. Hannouri (84'), Y. Fatine (90+1' o.g.).

The match was played at Stade Ben Ahmed El Abdi in Mazghan.