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Fursan Hispania vs Dibba Al Hisn — Division 1 2018

Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Dibba Al Hisn
Dibba Al Hisn
2/3/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 20The Sevens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania15%
×Draw19%
Dibba Al Hisn66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fursan Hispania
0.97
Dibba Al Hisn
2.23

Dibba Al Hisn creates 130% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 86 away

creates per match

Fursan Hispania
0.81
Dibba Al Hisn
1.83

allows per match

Fursan Hispania
2.63
Dibba Al Hisn
1.12

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par
Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Dibba Al Hisn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw
34%
Fursan Hispania or Dibba Al Hisn
81%
Draw or Dibba Al Hisn
85%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
5%
Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
62%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
25%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
7%
Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals
89%
Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals
65%
Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
19%
Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Dibba Al Hisn away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.12 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.83 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more
15%
level
19%
Dibba Al Hisn scores more
66%

Dibba Al Hisn at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Fursan Hispania 0–4 Dibba Al Hisn

Dibba Al Hisn beat Fursan Hispania 4-0 in Division 1 on February 3, 2023.

The match was played at The Sevens Stadium in Dubai.