Dibba Al Hisn 3–0 Fursan Hispania: Result & Stats

Dibba Al Hisn

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fursan Hispania

9/25/2022

Division 1 · Round 3Dibba Al-Hisn Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Dibba Al Hisn66%

×Draw19%

Fursan Hispania15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dibba Al HisnExpected goals in this matchFursan Hispania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.16

0.90

Dibba Al Hisn

2.16

Fursan Hispania

0.90

Dibba Al Hisn creates 140% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 16 away

1.87

creates per match

0.81

0.98

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Dibba Al Hisn

1.87

Fursan Hispania

0.81

allows per match

Dibba Al Hisn

0.98

Fursan Hispania

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dibba Al Hisn+0.00on par

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dibba Al Hisn ↓

Fursan Hispania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Dibba Al Hisn or draw

85%

Dibba Al Hisn or Fursan Hispania

81%

Draw or Fursan Hispania

34%

Winning margin

Dibba Al Hisn wins by 2+

42%

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Dibba Al Hisn 1+ goals

88%

Dibba Al Hisn 2+ goals

63%

Dibba Al Hisn 3+ goals

36%

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

59%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

23%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dibba Al Hisn (draw refunded)

82%

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dibba Al Hisn at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.98 · 87 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dibba Al Hisn attack 1.87 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.16

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Dibba Al Hisn defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Dibba Al Hisn scores more

66%

level

19%

Fursan Hispania scores more

15%

Dibba Al Hisn at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Dibba Al Hisn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff