Fursan Hispania 1–2 Baynounah SC: Result & Stats

Fursan Hispania

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Baynounah SC

10/1/2022

Division 1 · Round 4Shabab Al Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania41%

×Draw23%

Baynounah SC36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fursan HispaniaExpected goals in this matchBaynounah SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.66

Fursan Hispania

1.78

Baynounah SC

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

0.81

creates per match

0.69

2.63

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Fursan Hispania

0.81

Baynounah SC

0.69

allows per match

Fursan Hispania

2.63

Baynounah SC

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Baynounah SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw

64%

Fursan Hispania or Baynounah SC

77%

Draw or Baynounah SC

59%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

22%

Baynounah SC wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

83%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

53%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

26%

Baynounah SC 1+ goals

81%

Baynounah SC 2+ goals

49%

Baynounah SC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

53%

Baynounah SC (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Baynounah SC away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.75 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Baynounah SC defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.78

Baynounah SC attack 0.69 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more

41%

level

23%

Baynounah SC scores more

36%

Fursan Hispania at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fursan Hispania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff