Baynounah SC 2–1 Fursan Hispania: Result & Stats

Baynounah SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fursan Hispania

2/11/2023

Division 1 · Round 21Emirates Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Baynounah SC42%

×Draw22%

Fursan Hispania36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baynounah SCExpected goals in this matchFursan Hispania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.75

Baynounah SC

1.91

Fursan Hispania

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

1.38

creates per match

0.81

2.69

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Baynounah SC

1.38

Fursan Hispania

0.81

allows per match

Baynounah SC

2.69

Fursan Hispania

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baynounah SC+0.00on par

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baynounah SC ↓

Fursan Hispania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Baynounah SC or draw

64%

Baynounah SC or Fursan Hispania

78%

Draw or Fursan Hispania

58%

Winning margin

Baynounah SC wins by 2+

23%

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Baynounah SC 1+ goals

85%

Baynounah SC 2+ goals

57%

Baynounah SC 3+ goals

30%

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

83%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

52%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Baynounah SC (draw refunded)

54%

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baynounah SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.69 · 16 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baynounah SC attack 1.38 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.91

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Baynounah SC defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Baynounah SC scores more

42%

level

22%

Fursan Hispania scores more

36%

Baynounah SC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Baynounah SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff