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Fursan Hispania vs Al Thaid — Division 1 2018

Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al Thaid
Al Thaid
11/12/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 10Shabab Al Ahli Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania24%
×Draw23%
Al Thaid54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fursan Hispania
1.16
Al Thaid
1.86

Al Thaid creates 60% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 100 away

creates per match

Fursan Hispania
0.81
Al Thaid
1.10

allows per match

Fursan Hispania
2.63
Al Thaid
1.51

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par
Al Thaid+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Al Thaid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw
46%
Fursan Hispania or Al Thaid
77%
Draw or Al Thaid
76%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
9%
Al Thaid wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
69%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
32%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
11%
Al Thaid 1+ goals
84%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
55%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
31%
Al Thaid (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Al Thaid away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Thaid defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.16

Al Thaid attack 1.10 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more
24%
level
23%
Al Thaid scores more
54%

Al Thaid at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Thaid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Fursan Hispania 0–1 Al Thaid

Al Thaid beat Fursan Hispania 1-0 in Division 1 on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Shabab Al Ahli Stadium in Dubai.