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Al Thaid vs Fursan Hispania — Division 1 2018

Al Thaid
Al Thaid
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
3/25/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 27Al-Dhaid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Thaid54%
×Draw22%
Fursan Hispania23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Thaid
1.89
Fursan Hispania
1.15

Al Thaid creates 64% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Thaid
1.33
Fursan Hispania
0.81

allows per match

Al Thaid
1.48
Fursan Hispania
2.44

finishing

Al Thaid+0.00on par
Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Thaid ↓

Fursan Hispania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Thaid or draw
77%
Al Thaid or Fursan Hispania
78%
Draw or Fursan Hispania
46%

Winning margin

Al Thaid wins by 2+
31%
Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Al Thaid 1+ goals
85%
Al Thaid 2+ goals
56%
Al Thaid 3+ goals
29%
Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
68%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
32%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al Thaid (draw refunded)
70%
Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Thaid at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.48 · 100 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Thaid attack 1.33 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.89

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Thaid defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Al Thaid scores more
54%
level
22%
Fursan Hispania scores more
23%

Al Thaid at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Al Thaid will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Al Thaid vs Fursan Hispania

Al Thaid and Fursan Hispania drew 2-2 in Division 1 on March 25, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Dhaid Stadium in Dhaid.