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Fursan Hispania vs Al Taawon — Division 1 2018

Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
FT
2 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
Al Taawon
Al Taawon
R. Salmin 90+2'
L. Machou 21'
Carlos Alberto 65'
M. Mohammed 49', 45+1'
M. Abibou 47', 45+4'
10/15/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 6Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania25%
×Draw22%
Al Taawon52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fursan Hispania
1.25
Al Taawon
1.90

Al Taawon creates 52% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 72 away

creates per match

Fursan Hispania
0.81
Al Taawon
1.18

allows per match

Fursan Hispania
2.63
Al Taawon
1.68

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par
Al Taawon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Al Taawon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw
48%
Fursan Hispania or Al Taawon
78%
Draw or Al Taawon
75%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
10%
Al Taawon wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
71%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
36%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
13%
Al Taawon 1+ goals
85%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
56%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
32%
Al Taawon (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Al Taawon away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.68 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Taawon defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.25

Al Taawon attack 1.18 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more
25%
level
22%
Al Taawon scores more
52%

Al Taawon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
L. Machou
45+1'
M. Mohammed
45+4'
M. Abibou
47'
M. Abibou
49'
M. Mohammed
65'
Carlos Alberto
90+2'
R. Salmin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fursan Hispania vs Al Taawon

Al Taawon beat Fursan Hispania 5-2 in Division 1 on October 15, 2022.

Goals: L. Machou (21'), M. Mohammed (45+1', 49'), M. Abibou (45+4', 47'), Carlos Alberto (65'), R. Salmin (90+2').

The match was played at Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium in Ash Sha'm.