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Al Taawon vs Fursan Hispania — Division 1 2018

Al Taawon
Al Taawon
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fursan Hispania
Fursan Hispania
2/25/2023Division 1Division 1 · Round 23Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Taawon52%
×Draw23%
Fursan Hispania25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al Taawon
1.85
Fursan Hispania
1.22

Al Taawon creates 52% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 16 away

creates per match

Al Taawon
1.27
Fursan Hispania
0.81

allows per match

Al Taawon
1.62
Fursan Hispania
2.44

finishing

Al Taawon+0.00on par
Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Taawon ↓

Fursan Hispania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Al Taawon or draw
75%
Al Taawon or Fursan Hispania
77%
Draw or Fursan Hispania
48%

Winning margin

Al Taawon wins by 2+
29%
Fursan Hispania wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Al Taawon 1+ goals
84%
Al Taawon 2+ goals
55%
Al Taawon 3+ goals
28%
Fursan Hispania 1+ goals
70%
Fursan Hispania 2+ goals
34%
Fursan Hispania 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Al Taawon (draw refunded)
67%
Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Taawon at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.62 · 73 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Taawon attack 1.27 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.85

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Taawon defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Al Taawon scores more
52%
level
23%
Fursan Hispania scores more
25%

Al Taawon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Al Taawon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Al Taawon 0–0 Fursan Hispania

Al Taawon and Fursan Hispania drew 0-0 in Division 1 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Mohammed Bin Saud Al-Qasimi Stadium in Ash Sha'm.