Fursan Hispania 1–4 Al Hamriyah: Result & Stats

Fursan Hispania

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Al Hamriyah

3/4/2023

Division 1 · Round 24The Sevens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Fursan Hispania17%

×Draw20%

Al Hamriyah62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fursan HispaniaExpected goals in this matchAl Hamriyah

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

2.12

Fursan Hispania

1.02

Al Hamriyah

2.12

Al Hamriyah creates 108% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 98 away

0.81

creates per match

1.60

2.63

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Fursan Hispania

0.81

Al Hamriyah

1.60

allows per match

Fursan Hispania

2.63

Al Hamriyah

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fursan Hispania ↓

Al Hamriyah →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Fursan Hispania or draw

38%

Fursan Hispania or Al Hamriyah

80%

Draw or Al Hamriyah

83%

Winning margin

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

6%

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

64%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

27%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

8%

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals

88%

Al Hamriyah 2+ goals

62%

Al Hamriyah 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

22%

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fursan Hispania at home — creates 0.81, concedes 2.63 · 16 matches

Al Hamriyah away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.02

Al Hamriyah attack 1.60 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Fursan Hispania scores more

17%

level

20%

Al Hamriyah scores more

62%

Al Hamriyah at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff