Al Hamriyah 4–1 Fursan Hispania: Result & Stats

Al Hamriyah

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Fursan Hispania

10/21/2022

Division 1 · Round 7Al-Hamriya Sports Club Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Al Hamriyah58%

×Draw21%

Fursan Hispania20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al HamriyahExpected goals in this matchFursan Hispania

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.10

Al Hamriyah

2.01

Fursan Hispania

1.10

Al Hamriyah creates 83% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 16 away

1.58

creates per match

0.81

1.39

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Al Hamriyah

1.58

Fursan Hispania

0.81

allows per match

Al Hamriyah

1.39

Fursan Hispania

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al Hamriyah+0.00on par

Fursan Hispania+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al Hamriyah ↓

Fursan Hispania →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Al Hamriyah or draw

80%

Al Hamriyah or Fursan Hispania

79%

Draw or Fursan Hispania

42%

Winning margin

Al Hamriyah wins by 2+

35%

Fursan Hispania wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Al Hamriyah 1+ goals

87%

Al Hamriyah 2+ goals

59%

Al Hamriyah 3+ goals

32%

Fursan Hispania 1+ goals

67%

Fursan Hispania 2+ goals

30%

Fursan Hispania 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Al Hamriyah (draw refunded)

74%

Fursan Hispania (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al Hamriyah at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.39 · 100 matches

Fursan Hispania away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al Hamriyah attack 1.58 + Fursan Hispania defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.01

Fursan Hispania attack 0.81 + Al Hamriyah defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Al Hamriyah scores more

58%

level

21%

Fursan Hispania scores more

20%

Al Hamriyah at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Al Hamriyah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff