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Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Trujillanos FC — Segunda División 2018

Fundación Lara Deportiva
Fundación Lara Deportiva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trujillanos FC
Trujillanos FC
7/24/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 17Estadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva38%
×Draw30%
Trujillanos FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.09
Trujillanos FC
0.95

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 15% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 57 away

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.45
Trujillanos FC
0.79

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva
1.11
Trujillanos FC
0.74

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par
Trujillanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Trujillanos FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw
69%
Fundación Lara Deportiva or Trujillanos FC
70%
Draw or Trujillanos FC
62%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+
16%
Trujillanos FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals
66%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals
30%
Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals
10%
Trujillanos FC 1+ goals
61%
Trujillanos FC 2+ goals
25%
Trujillanos FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)
55%
Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

Trujillanos FC away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.74 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.45 + Trujillanos FC defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.09

Trujillanos FC attack 0.79 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more
38%
level
30%
Trujillanos FC scores more
31%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–0 Trujillanos FC

Fundación Lara Deportiva and Trujillanos FC drew 0-0 in Segunda División on July 24, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Farid Richa in Barquisimeto.