Fundación Lara Deportiva 1–0 Trujillanos FC

Fundación Lara Deportiva

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trujillanos FC

7/9/2025

Copa Venezuela · Round 1 - Group EEstadio Farid Richa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Fundación Lara Deportiva50%

×Draw29%

Trujillanos FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fundación Lara DeportivaExpected goals in this matchTrujillanos FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

0.74

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.31

Trujillanos FC

0.74

Fundación Lara Deportiva creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

0.20

1.29

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.43

Trujillanos FC

0.20

allows per match

Fundación Lara Deportiva

1.29

Trujillanos FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fundación Lara Deportiva+0.00on par

Trujillanos FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fundación Lara Deportiva ↓

Trujillanos FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Fundación Lara Deportiva or draw

79%

Fundación Lara Deportiva or Trujillanos FC

71%

Draw or Trujillanos FC

50%

Winning margin

Fundación Lara Deportiva wins by 2+

24%

Trujillanos FC wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fundación Lara Deportiva 1+ goals

73%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 2+ goals

38%

Fundación Lara Deportiva 3+ goals

14%

Trujillanos FC 1+ goals

52%

Trujillanos FC 2+ goals

17%

Trujillanos FC 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Fundación Lara Deportiva (draw refunded)

70%

Trujillanos FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fundación Lara Deportiva at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Trujillanos FC away — creates 0.20, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fundación Lara Deportiva attack 1.43 + Trujillanos FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.31

Trujillanos FC attack 0.20 + Fundación Lara Deportiva defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fundación Lara Deportiva scores more

50%

level

29%

Trujillanos FC scores more

21%

Fundación Lara Deportiva at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Fundación Lara Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff